Analyst's note
I am a data analyst. My method: state the assumptions explicitly, then follow the math. Six scenarios range from the city's original 2023 baseline to a reverse calculation of what this tax can actually afford to build. We assume the project proceeds as quickly as possible. The key question: does the money add up? In five of six scenarios, it does not. In every scenario, the General Fund absorbs a permanent and growing burden after year 10.
Scenario 1 · The 2023 Baseline
Uses the original November 2023 projections as a starting point — the numbers presented to voters when the petition was circulated. Revenue and operating estimates are from 2023. Construction cost is the current 2026 figure of $37.2M — a 77% increase from what voters saw.
✗ Initial Shortfall: −$821,475/yr
Year 1: Money In vs. Money Out
Revenue
Debt Service
Operations
Total Cost
Operating Cost Growth (3%/yr)
Annual Operating Cost
Your Tax Bill: 2,000 sq ft Home (5%/yr rate growth)
Annual Tax ($)
Initial Tax Revenue
$2,500,000
Nov. 2023 city estimate
Annual Debt Service
$2,421,475
Fixed for 30 years
Initial Annual Shortfall
−$821,475
Grows as operating costs rise 3%/yr
Year-10 Shortfall (est.)
−$988,000
Operating costs ~$1.21M at 3%/yr
Assumptions — stated explicitly
Construction Cost
$37,200,000
Jan. 2026 city estimate
Bond Rate / Term
5.0% / 30 yrs
City Impact Report assumption
Annual Debt Service
$2,421,475
PMT function; fixed payment
Initial Tax Revenue
$2,500,000
Nov. 2023 city projection
Initial Operating Cost
$900,000
Nov. 2023 city estimate
Operating Cost Growth
3%/yr
Applied to all scenarios
What a 2,000 sq ft Homeowner Pays — If Tax Rate Grows 5%/Year
Year 1
$340
17.0¢/sf
Year 5
$413
20.7¢/sf
Year 10
$527
26.4¢/sf
Year 20
$859
43.0¢/sf
Year 30
$1,399
70.0¢/sf
The ballot measure allows the maximum tax rate to increase annually by the greater of Bay Area CPI or California per capita income growth. This table assumes 5%/yr. No voter approval is required for these increases. The 30-year clock does not start until bonds are issued.
Bond Credit Rating & General Fund Implications
Goal: A-Rated Bond at 5%
An A rating requires a Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) of at least 1.25×. The ballot initiative caps the tax at 115% of costs — structurally preventing an A rating from tax revenue alone.
GF subsidy needed annually to achieve A rating
~$527,000/yr
1.25× DSCR requires $3,026,844 revenue. Tax provides $2,500,000. Gap = $526,844.
If AA Bonds Were Achievable (~4.4%)
AA bonds at ~4.4% would save about $221,000/year vs. 5% bonds — $6.6M over 30 years. But AA requires DSCR ≥ 1.5×, which this tax cannot produce. AA is not achievable under this structure.
Realistic rating given 1.15× structural cap
Below Investment Grade
General Fund Impact: Three Phases
Phase 1 · Pre-Construction (Starts ASAP)
$157,615/yr (current)
GF currently pays library O&M. Tax collections begin December 2026 and go to planning and administration. We assume the project proceeds as fast as possible.
Phase 2 · Years 1–10 After Opening
$821K+ gap, growing each year
Tax covers debt service but falls short from day one. The 3%/yr operating cost escalation widens the gap every year. By year 10, the annual shortfall reaches ~$988K.
Phase 3 · After Year 10 — Permanent
$900K → $1.21M/yr and rising
The 10-year operating authorization expires. All operating costs — grown from $900K to over $1.21M — revert permanently to the General Fund. That is a 7.7× increase over today's $157,615.
Key point: This scenario uses the November 2023 numbers as a baseline for comparison. The construction cost shown ($37.2M) is the 2026 figure — a 77% increase from what voters saw when they signed the petition. Later scenarios use updated revenue and operating estimates.
Scenario 2 · Worst Case
Note: despite the label, the financial outcome here is actually better than Scenario 1 — because our independently confirmed revenue estimate ($2,700,000) exceeds the city's 2023 figure. "Worst case" refers to using the highest operating cost estimates from the §9212 Impact Report.
✗ Initial Shortfall: −$621,475/yr
Year 1: Money In vs. Money Out
Revenue
Debt Service
Operations
Total Cost
Operating Cost Growth (3%/yr)
Annual Operating Cost
Your Tax Bill: 2,000 sq ft Home (5%/yr rate growth)
Annual Tax ($)
Initial Tax Revenue
$2,700,000
Confirmed parcels; WCCUSD-aligned
Annual Debt Service
$2,421,475
Fixed for 30 years
Initial Annual Shortfall
−$621,475
Better than S1 due to higher revenue
Year-10 Shortfall (est.)
−$788,000
Operating costs ~$1.21M at 3%/yr
Assumptions — stated explicitly
Construction Cost
$37,200,000
Jan. 2026 city estimate
Bond Rate / Term
5.0% / 30 yrs
City Impact Report assumption
Annual Debt Service
$2,421,475
PMT function; fixed payment
Initial Tax Revenue
$2,700,000
Our low-end confirmed estimate
Initial Operating Cost
$900,000
Top of Impact Report range
Operating Cost Growth
3%/yr
Applied to all scenarios
What a 2,000 sq ft Homeowner Pays — If Tax Rate Grows 5%/Year
Year 1
$340
17.0¢/sf
Year 5
$413
20.7¢/sf
Year 10
$527
26.4¢/sf
Year 20
$859
43.0¢/sf
Year 30
$1,399
70.0¢/sf
Maximum rate grows annually at the greater of Bay Area CPI or California per capita income growth. 5%/yr assumed. No voter approval required for these increases.
Bond Credit Rating & General Fund Implications
Revenue After Debt Service (Year 1)
$2,700,000 − $2,421,475 = $278,525 remaining after debt service. Initial operating cost is $900,000. Annual gap: $621,475 — and growing 3%/yr.
GF subsidy needed annually for A rating (1.25× DSCR)
~$327,000/yr
AA Bond Savings (not achievable under this structure)
AA bonds at ~4.4% would save ~$221,000/yr in debt service. But the initiative's 1.15× DSCR cap makes AA structurally impossible without large GF supplements.
Realistic rating given 1.15× structural cap
Below Investment Grade
General Fund Impact: Three Phases
Phase 1 · Pre-Construction (Starts ASAP)
$157,615/yr (current)
Tax collections begin December 2026. We assume the project moves forward as quickly as possible.
Phase 2 · Years 1–10 After Opening
$621K+ gap, growing each year
Tax barely covers debt service with nothing left for operations. Even at maximum 17¢ rate, the gap persists and grows as operating costs rise 3%/yr.
Phase 3 · After Year 10 — Permanent
$900K → $1.21M/yr and rising
Full operating costs hit the GF permanently. No identified funding source exists. Requires new taxes or deep cuts to other city services.
Revenue note: The $2,700,000 figure is derived from independently confirmed taxable parcels, cross-referenced against WCCUSD parcel tax collection records. It is our most conservative confirmed estimate — not a hypothetical.
Scenario 3 · Mid-Range
Revenue between our confirmed low estimate and the city's maximum projection. Operating costs at a moderate mid-point. The most likely outcome if construction proceeds on schedule without major cost overruns.
✗ Initial Shortfall: −$221,475/yr
Year 1: Money In vs. Money Out
Revenue
Debt Service
Operations
Total Cost
Operating Cost Growth (3%/yr)
Annual Operating Cost
Your Tax Bill: 2,000 sq ft Home (5%/yr rate growth)
Annual Tax ($)
Initial Tax Revenue
$2,900,000
Mid-range estimate
Annual Debt Service
$2,421,475
Fixed for 30 years
Initial Annual Shortfall
−$221,475
Grows as operating costs rise 3%/yr
Year-10 Shortfall (est.)
−$388,000
Operating costs ~$940K at 3%/yr
Assumptions — stated explicitly
Construction Cost
$37,200,000
Jan. 2026 city estimate
Bond Rate / Term
5.0% / 30 yrs
City Impact Report assumption
Annual Debt Service
$2,421,475
PMT function; fixed payment
Initial Tax Revenue
$2,900,000
Mid-range estimate
Initial Operating Cost
$700,000
Mid-range estimate
Operating Cost Growth
3%/yr
Applied to all scenarios
What a 2,000 sq ft Homeowner Pays — If Tax Rate Grows 5%/Year
Year 1
$340
17.0¢/sf
Year 5
$413
20.7¢/sf
Year 10
$527
26.4¢/sf
Year 20
$859
43.0¢/sf
Year 30
$1,399
70.0¢/sf
Maximum rate grows annually at the greater of Bay Area CPI or California per capita income growth. 5%/yr assumed. No voter approval required.
Bond Credit Rating & General Fund Implications
Revenue vs. Total Costs (Year 1)
$2,900,000 − $2,421,475 debt − $700,000 ops = −$221,475 shortfall from day one.
GF subsidy needed annually for A rating (1.25× DSCR)
~$127,000/yr
AA Bond Savings (not achievable)
AA at ~4.4% saves ~$221,000/yr — nearly equal to the initial shortfall. But 1.5× DSCR required for AA is structurally unachievable under this initiative without GF support.
Realistic rating given 1.15× structural cap
Below Investment Grade
General Fund Impact: Three Phases
Phase 1 · Pre-Construction (Starts ASAP)
$157,615/yr (current)
GF pays existing library costs. Tax collected starting December 2026 for planning and construction. Fastest possible timeline assumed.
Phase 2 · Years 1–10 After Opening
$221K gap, growing to $388K
Tax falls short in year 1. The 3%/yr operating cost escalation widens the gap annually. By year 10, annual shortfall reaches ~$388K.
Phase 3 · After Year 10 — Permanent
$700K → $940K/yr and rising
Operating costs hit GF permanently — a 6× increase over today's $157,615. Growth continues at 3%/yr with no end date.
Key observation: In the mid-range scenario, every single year produces a shortfall. The 3% operating escalation means the problem worsens over time. There is no self-correcting mechanism.
Scenario 4 · Optimistic (Best Case)
Uses the city's own maximum revenue projection from the §9212 Impact Report — full 17¢ rate on all taxable parcels every year. Operating costs held to the lowest plausible figure. Every assumption is chosen to favor the proposal.
⚠ Year-1 Surplus: +$234,544 — turns to deficit ~Year 5
Year 1: Money In vs. Money Out
Revenue
Debt Service
Operations
Total Cost
Annual Surplus/(Deficit) Over 10 Years
Surplus
Deficit
Your Tax Bill: 2,000 sq ft Home (5%/yr rate growth)
Annual Tax ($)
Initial Tax Revenue
$3,156,019
City's own max · Impact Report p.18
Year-1 Surplus
+$234,544
Margin of safety: only 7.4%
Surplus Turns to Deficit
~Year 5
As 3%/yr ops growth erodes margin
Year-10 Deficit (est.)
−$162,000
Even at best-case $500K initial ops
Assumptions — stated explicitly
Construction Cost
$37,200,000
Jan. 2026 city estimate
Bond Rate / Term
5.0% / 30 yrs
City Impact Report assumption
Annual Debt Service
$2,421,475
PMT function; fixed payment
Initial Tax Revenue
$3,156,019
City max rate, all parcels
Initial Operating Cost
$500,000
Optimistic low — half city's estimate
Operating Cost Growth
3%/yr
Applied to all scenarios
What a 2,000 sq ft Homeowner Pays — If Tax Rate Grows 5%/Year
Year 1
$340
17.0¢/sf
Year 5
$413
20.7¢/sf
Year 10
$527
26.4¢/sf
Year 20
$859
43.0¢/sf
Year 30
$1,399
70.0¢/sf
Maximum rate grows annually at the greater of Bay Area CPI or California per capita income growth. 5%/yr assumed. No voter approval required.
Bond Credit Rating — Even Best Case Has Structural Problems
Year-1 DSCR
$3,156,019 ÷ $2,421,475 = 1.30× — enough for an A rating in Year 1 only. Requires maximum rate every year AND operating costs at half the city's own estimate.
GF subsidy needed for A rating — Year 1
Not needed — Year 1 only
The 3%/Year Deterioration Problem
Operating costs growing at 3%/yr erode the DSCR every year. By ~Year 5, total costs exceed revenue. Bond rating agencies would anticipate this deterioration at issuance.
Long-run credit rating trajectory
A (Year 1) → Deteriorating
General Fund Impact: Three Phases
Phase 1 · Pre-Construction (Starts ASAP)
$157,615/yr (current)
Tax collected at maximum 17¢ rate starting December 2026. Project moves as fast as possible. This is the city's own best-case scenario.
Phase 2 · Years 1–10 After Opening
Surplus → Deficit by ~Year 5
Starts with a $234K surplus. By year 5, operating costs reach ~$580K and total costs exceed revenue. By year 10, annual deficit is ~$162K.
Phase 3 · After Year 10 — Permanent
$500K → $672K/yr and rising
Best-case operating costs — grown from $500K to ~$672K — hit the GF permanently. That is a 4.3× increase over today's $157,615. This is the most favorable possible scenario.
Why optimistic is still not good enough: The 3%/yr operating cost growth is unavoidable. The initial surplus exists only in Year 1, and only if every variable is simultaneously at its best-case value. A 30-year commitment cannot rest on a 7.4% margin that disappears by Year 5.
Scenario 5 · Cost Escalation to $47.9M
The city's own §9212 Impact Report includes a "New Site" scenario at $47.9M. This figure appears in the city's own published documents. A 29% increase from $37.2M is historically normal for delayed California public construction.
✗ Initial Shortfall: −$815,964/yr
Year 1: Money In vs. Money Out
Revenue
Debt Service
Operations
Total Cost
Operating Cost Growth (3%/yr)
Annual Operating Cost
Your Tax Bill: 2,000 sq ft Home (5%/yr rate growth)
Annual Tax ($)
Initial Tax Revenue
$2,900,000
Mid-range estimate
Annual Debt Service
$3,115,964
$47.9M @ 5% / 30 yrs
Initial Shortfall
−$815,964
Debt service alone exceeds revenue
30-Year Cumulative Gap
~$30M+
Growing with ops escalation
Assumptions — stated explicitly
Construction Cost
$47,900,000
City §9212 Impact Report Scenario 4
Bond Rate / Term
5.0% / 30 yrs
City Impact Report assumption
Annual Debt Service
$3,115,964
PMT function; fixed payment
Initial Tax Revenue
$2,900,000
Mid-range estimate
Initial Operating Cost
$700,000
Mid-range estimate
Operating Cost Growth
3%/yr
Applied to all scenarios
What a 2,000 sq ft Homeowner Pays — If Tax Rate Grows 5%/Year
Year 1
$340
17.0¢/sf
Year 5
$413
20.7¢/sf
Year 10
$527
26.4¢/sf
Year 20
$859
43.0¢/sf
Year 30
$1,399
70.0¢/sf
Maximum rate grows annually at the greater of Bay Area CPI or California per capita income growth. 5%/yr assumed. No voter approval required.
Bond Credit Rating at $47.9M
DSCR at Mid-Range Revenue
$2,900,000 ÷ $3,115,964 = 0.93×. Revenue does not cover debt service before paying a dollar of operating costs. Investment-grade bonds are impossible without massive GF support.
Additional GF needed just for debt service
$215,964/yr minimum
Why This Is Not a Hypothetical
The $47.9M figure is published in the city's own §9212 Impact Report as Scenario 4. The project already rose 77% from $21M to $37.2M before construction began.
Realistic credit rating at $47.9M
Junk / Likely Unfinanceable
General Fund Impact: Three Phases
Phase 1 · Pre-Construction (Starts ASAP)
$157,615/yr (current)
Tax collected starting December 2026. Even assuming fastest possible timeline, cost escalation risk is real given California public project history.
Phase 2 · Years 1–10 After Opening
$816K+ gap, growing
Revenue does not cover debt service alone at mid-range. Even maximum 17¢ rate ($3.16M) leaves a $656K shortfall after operating costs.
Phase 3 · After Year 10 — Permanent
$700K → $940K/yr and rising
Full operating costs hit GF permanently while bond payments continue. City already faces road maintenance backlog, pension liabilities, and minimal reserves.
Important: The $47.9M is not invented — it is Scenario 4 in the city's own §9212 Impact Report (Feb. 19, 2026). Cost escalation of this magnitude is historically normal for California public construction.
Scenario 6 · What Can This Tax Actually Afford to Build?
A reverse calculation. Given mid-range revenue and operating assumptions with the required 15% reserve, how large a library can be built? If a 20,000 sq ft library costs $37.2M, what size fits within the actual financial capacity of this tax?
→ Affordable: ~14,370 sq ft (proposed: 20,000 sq ft)
Proposed vs. Affordable: Construction Cost
Proposed ($37.2M)
Affordable ($26.7M)
Gap ($10.5M)
Proposed vs. Affordable: Library Size (sq ft)
Proposed (20,000)
Affordable (14,370)
Gap (5,630)
Your Tax Bill: 2,000 sq ft Home (5%/yr rate growth)
Annual Tax ($)
Available for Debt + Reserve
$2,000,000
$2,700,000 revenue − $700,000 ops
Max Supportable Loan (w/ 15% reserve)
~$26,730,000
Reverse-solved at 5% / 30 yrs
Proposed Construction Cost
$37,200,000
Exceeds capacity by ~$10.5M
Affordable Library Size
~14,370 sq ft
vs. 20,000 sq ft proposed (−28%)
Assumptions — stated explicitly
Initial Revenue (mid)
$2,700,000
Mid-range estimate
Initial Operating Cost
$700,000
Mid-range estimate
Available for Debt + Reserve
$2,000,000
Revenue minus operating costs
Reserve Requirement
15% of debt service
Initiative maximum; inv. grade minimum
Cost per sq ft (proposed)
$1,860/sq ft
$37.2M ÷ 20,000 sq ft
Method
Proportional ratio
Affordable cost ÷ total cost × 20,000 sf
The Arithmetic
Revenue available for debt + reserve = $2,700,000 − $700,000 = $2,000,000
With 15% reserve, net available for debt service = $2,000,000 ÷ 1.15 = $1,739,130
Maximum loan at 5%/30yr: $1,739,130 ÷ 0.06505 ≈ $26,730,000
Affordable sq ft = ($26,730,000 ÷ $37,200,000) × 20,000 = ~14,370 sq ft
The proposed library is ~5,630 sq ft too large for what this tax can support — roughly 28% oversized.
Revenue available for debt + reserve = $2,700,000 − $700,000 = $2,000,000
With 15% reserve, net available for debt service = $2,000,000 ÷ 1.15 = $1,739,130
Maximum loan at 5%/30yr: $1,739,130 ÷ 0.06505 ≈ $26,730,000
Affordable sq ft = ($26,730,000 ÷ $37,200,000) × 20,000 = ~14,370 sq ft
The proposed library is ~5,630 sq ft too large for what this tax can support — roughly 28% oversized.
Risks That Could Make the Affordable Size Even Smaller
Interest Rate Risk
+1% rate → −1,150 sq ft
If bond rate is 6% instead of 5%, annual debt service rises and the maximum affordable loan drops to ~$23.4M, reducing affordable size to ~12,600 sq ft.
Revenue Risk
−10% revenue → −1,400 sq ft
If revenue comes in 10% below mid-range ($2,430,000), only $1,730,000 remains after operations — reducing the affordable library to ~12,970 sq ft.
Operating Cost Risk
3%/yr growth narrows capacity every year
By year 5, operating costs grow from $700K to $811K — reducing the amount available for debt service. The affordable size shown here is Year 1 only; financial capacity shrinks every year.
General Fund Impact — Even for an Affordable Library
Phase 1 · Pre-Construction
$157,615/yr (current)
A smaller library still requires the same planning, permitting, and construction timeline with all the same risks.
Phase 2 · Years 1–10 After Opening
Near break-even at start
A ~14,370 sq ft library breaks even in year 1 under mid-range assumptions. But 3%/yr operating escalation erodes the margin — GF support needed by year 5 or 6.
Phase 3 · After Year 10 — Permanent
$700K → $940K/yr and rising
Even a smaller library imposes the same Phase 3 burden. Operating costs hit the GF permanently regardless of library size. This obligation does not go away.
Bottom line: The tax cannot finance the proposed 20,000 sq ft library at mid-range assumptions. To build what is proposed, the city must either scale back to ~14,370 sq ft, find $10.5M in outside funding not yet identified, or ask voters to approve a higher rate than 17¢. None of these has been presented to voters.
All Scenarios at a Glance
| Scenario | Initial Revenue | Debt Service | Initial Ops | Year-1 Result | GF After Year 10 | Bond Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 · 2023 Baseline | $2,500,000 | $2,421,475 | $900,000 | −$821,475 | $900K→$1.21M/yr | Below Inv. Grade |
| S2 · Worst Case | $2,700,000 | $2,421,475 | $900,000 | −$621,475 | $900K→$1.21M/yr | Below Inv. Grade |
| S3 · Mid-Range | $2,900,000 | $2,421,475 | $700,000 | −$221,475 | $700K→$940K/yr | Below Inv. Grade |
| S4 · Optimistic | $3,156,019 | $2,421,475 | $500,000 | +$234,544 → deficit ~Yr 5 | $500K→$672K/yr | A (Yr 1 only) |
| S5 · Cost Escalation ($47.9M) | $2,900,000 | $3,115,964 | $700,000 | −$815,964 | $700K→$940K/yr | Junk |
| S6 · Affordable Size | $2,700,000 | — | $700,000 | Max build: ~$26.7M | $700K→$940K/yr | ~14,370 sq ft |
Debt service: PMT at 5.00%, 30-year term, level payments. Operating costs grow 3%/yr in all scenarios; "initial" values shown. GF burden after year 10 = permanent annual obligation when 10-year operating cost authorization expires. Current GF library expenditure: $157,615/yr. Bond ratings: AA ≥ 1.50× DSCR, A ≥ 1.25×, BBB ≥ 1.15×. Initiative caps tax at 115% of costs, limiting DSCR to 1.15× from tax revenue alone. Tax rate growth: 5%/yr assumed. All homeowner estimates use 2,000 sq ft home.